Not all is well in the old continent. War and upheaval on the peripheries, economic and political stagnation within, strategic disunity across.. What will become of the EU in the midst of the US-China great power competition? What Europe needs, today more than ever, is a strategic vision that unites its member states around common goals that insulate the continent from the stresses and volatility ensuing from the rise of China and the attempt by the US to tame the rise of the dragon. Post- Ukraine, Europe Again a Graveyard of Great Power Competition
To understand the game as it unfolds, let’s put ourselves in the shoes of some of the players on the Eurasian chessboard. What does each player aim to achieve from the transition to the new post-American world order?
Germany
Germany has been a hegemon in European affairs. It has succeeded in shaping Europe to serve its interests economically, connectivity-wise and geopolitically as well. The European project we have today serves Germany and rotates around it- as well as France. To power German factories, it got cheap energy from Russia (until recently). As for cheap labor, it attracts the best minds that Europe has to offer- luring them in via a generous welfare state and a modern lifestyle. Moreover, the EU is a big market to guarantee demand for German exports.
In the aftermath of Ukraine, Germany has been little more than a status quo actor. It pays lip service to the Americans and Europeans engaged in the war effort. It reneged on its promise to increase defence spending. And it finds it hard to even show enthusiasm when it comes to anything Ukraine.
The German calculus so far is one of wait and see. Pre-Ukraine, Chancellor Angela Merkel was leading a rapprochement with Putin, the cosying up with Russia stirring up fury in Washington. Nonetheless, Germany saw Russia as part of its “Europe”, and it went forward in pressing for Nord Stream 2 despite the Americans (Of course, Nord Stream 2 met its fate in September 2022). But if you ask the German elites today, they’d still say they envisioned a big market for their goods extending from Vladivostok to Lisbon.
Anyway, the Germans are happily on the margins of the game. If Russia wins, they’ll be glad to get back to business as usual once again. If the Ukrainians win, well, they’d be unprepared at best- including for its implications on the new power dynamics in Europe.
But indecisiveness is unsustainable. How long before the Germans will have to make a decision? The world is changing, and they’ll have to choose a side, and even more put real money on the table- money that otherwise would go to economic development and infrastructure as was the case pre-Ukraine. We see a glimpse of this already with billions of Euros going to chip manufacturing centers to secure chips for German cars- instead of going to areas where Germany has a competitive advantage, such as software and tech etc..
Russia
Russia is a power in decline. Its leadership is treading very delicate waters in Europe, with far-reaching implications for its role and viability in the new world order.
In Europe, Russia needs to impose itself as essential to the security of Germany and France- the main European anchors. It cannot do so without Ukraine. Ukraine is vital to Russian interests and its ability to project power in Europe. Thus it is not only unacceptable for Russia to have American weapons in Ukraine pointed its way, but even more, it is unacceptable to have a Ukraine that is not integrated with Russia economically and politically. Ukraine is life or death for Russia.
More generally, Russia is raising its leverage in Europe not only to survive its identity as a European player, but also to reduce the American presence and thus impose itself on the Germans and the French as a partner without whom they cannot live in peace- a partner of necessity as had been the case in the chaos of the 19th century and 20th century. Back then it was a balancing force, siding with the French against the Germans, but also with any of Germany, France and Britain depending on the issue at hand. Russia is also, just as importantly, posing itself as the Europeans’ route to connectivity with China and thus even more indispensable.
Russia also has a Chinese challenge to deal with. China is much stronger than Russia. The Belt and Road initiative threatens to reduce Russian influence not only in Central Asia but also in Europe. There is rough history between the two, and that includes a lot of lost love over territory. Thus the competition is real- forget the soap opera on display on TV.
So the Russia priority is to reposition itself for the times ahead- a new emerging global order. Despite shrinking demographics and not much to show for economically, it needs to survive. Russia thus is rushing to exploit chaos in Europe- not to mention contribute to it- to make itself indispensable to the Chinese as a route to access Europe but also critically as a route to the Arctic where the axes of competition are evolving. In the long-run, if need be, Russia needs to hold enough vital cards to raise its negotiating price when the Americans come over for coffee to offer them a proposal they cannot refuse. For Russia to survive, it has to do many things right, and hope it makes it to the other side in one piece.
Poland
The view in Warsaw is crystal clear. The last decades of economic success were amazing, and Poland has benefited immensely from its deep integration into the German economy- and all the economic development that came with it. But since the developments in Ukraine in 2014, the Poles began looking beyond the honeymoon with Germany.
It is a simple formula: a Russia in Europe means a destabilized Poland, and a Europe without Russia could bring not only a stable Poland, but also a Poland that is central to the European equation. So yeah, when push comes to shove, Poland will have to put the economy on the side-lines and invest real resources towards the security and defense question- namely ensuring, at a great cost, that it replaces Russia as the dominant security actor on the eastern periphery of the European Union. Thus the Ukrainian question is a beginning and an end to this objective. In this sense, for Warsaw, Ukraine is Poland; and Poland is Ukraine.
For Poland, becoming a formidable power in the CEE region also aligns with a strategic vision of restoring the security and economic conditions that prevailed up until the partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. But there is a problem: Germany. Germany has no interest in the Baltic states amassing power between the black sea and Baltic sea as a counter-weight to German/French influence and as destabilizers of the connectivity architecture that is designed in West Europe’s favor. When it comes to Russia, the Western Europeans have a history of dealing with Russia too, and that also always comes at the expense of the CEE.
In conclusion, Poland is, effectively, preparing for war. By upgrading its military capabilities and preparing for combat, Poland wants to raise its stakes in the coming European moment of truth. Once things get hot, what will the Germans decide? A strong Poland could pressure the Germans to unite Europe, create a German military force, and strategically accept the Polish-led bloc as a guarantor of security on the easter flanks of the EU- kicking out the Russians forever. An un-German move that would evoke the spirits of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, “Na Zdrowie” as they say!
In the same token, Poland building its military and regaining strength is a result of its distrust of the US. While the US maintains a military base in Poland and talks about strategic alliances, the Poles know that the Americans in the grand scheme of things are uninterested in Europe. They’re deserting Europe as we speak to focus on the East, where the real promise of riches lies. Even more, once it gets dangerous on the Eurasian chessboard, the US might find it favourable to make a deal with the Russians, even a very favourable deal with the Russians, to switch sides and counter the Chinese ascendancy. What will prevent the Americans from, as part of any such deal, giving the Russians a free hand in the CEE? Any such deal will come at the expense of Poland, as history has proven again and again (“Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact”, anybody?). The US giving the Germans and Russians a green light on Nord Stream 2 in mid-2022 despite Polish concerns was a self-evident example that Poland was at the end of the day indispensable when the Germans and the Americans finally sat down with the Russians to discuss “Europe”. The Poles are not going to accept to be a prize for anyone. Dear Poland, prepare for the worst possible outcome.
To build on the previous point, Poland can even be a game-changer in its region, making unconventional efforts to shape its backyard and groom it in ways that serve its own interests. Since the US is an ally today, Poland is welcoming help to upgrade its military capabilities to defend itself- and to be prepared for a day when it may find itself on its own. In an ideal scenario, Poland aspires to be central to the US strategy and presence in Eurasia, thus ensuring no future “rapprochement” between West and East comes at its own expense.
History and geography have not dealt Poland the best cards. Despite the circumstances, Poland has, over centuries, cemented an identity and a belief that can rally a people around the cause. Poland is not dead yet!
United States of America
Far from the old continent yet never absent, the US knows where its priorities lie. For the US, there is only one war (to use Colby’s words), one that is far from Europe, but rather in East China and the Indo-Pacific. It will need to form an alliance- one not just including Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam.. but also India, and maybe, perhaps unofficially/indirectly, Russia. History permitted it before, so why not again?
Clearly the US cannot do it alone, especially when it isn’t even on the Eurasian map. In Europe, the US would love to see the EU unite under the US umbrella and do their fair share of the hard work and funding- something not seen before given that NATO was largely US-funded. For that, it needs Germany to make a radical shift in its world view that has existed since the end of the WW2. How fast can they bring the Germans along? What is the price they will have to pay the Germans to “secure” Europe from double-dealing along the lines of Macron’s “strategic autonomy”? Can they convince the EU states to transcend their petty differences and pathetic bickering and incessant in-fighting?
If the US manages to form a formidable alliance to contain China, it will enter the fight with the necessary leverage. That leverage and resources may even manage to attract Russia to its side once the great power competition turns on the heat in Eurasia.
China
China is the million dollar question, the black box of the 21st century. “Will its rise be peaceful?”, intellectuals have debated for a good two decades now. And it is finally the moment of truth. How will the US-China great power competition unfold?
China has so much to win, but also so much at stake. A global alliance aimed its way will mean it is dealt much more than it can chew. So the Taiwan question is pivotal. To conquer or not to conquer in the aftermath of Ukraine? However, there’s more. How will China manage an India conflict in the Indo-Pacific? A Russian front to the North? Eurasia from a Chinese perspective is far from a walk in the park.
For now, in Ukraine, China has supported Putin as it can’t do with a Russian defeat and the disintegration of Russia to its Northern borders. A Russia-in-transition would pose a highly destabilizing factor in Beijing. But what it can do with is a weaker, more subservient and economically isolated Russia. Heck, the Americans, in its view, have pushed Putin into the warm bosom of the Chinese dragon in the aftermath of Ukraine. Furthermore, China can’t do it alone. It needs Russia as a military ally and as a formidable international actor that can reduce US presence in Europe and distract it from engaging Asia where the real struggle lies.
India
India is an X-factor on the Eurasian continent. While much weaker than China, it is a rising force. It has historical rivalry with China, including territorial disputes, and a legitimate fear of the rise of China. It is not clear yet how India will behave on the international stage once things get heated. Historically a neutral force, India has the tendency to follow the non-alignment ways of the past and dissociate from the US-China battle. It’s served it thus far in Ukraine, with India maintaining access to cheap energy from Russia- with a discount.
But can it afford to sit and watch forever? A lot is at stake. And India’s neighbors- such as Pakistan and Indonesia, will not sit idly by. So India will have to at least measure its interests against those of the US as well as explore what the US has to offer to sway it to take sides. In the meantime, India is increasing its military capacity while pursuing economic development- time is of the essence.
Europe the Graveyard of History
To be direct, Ukraine is about the US not wanting Russia in Europe, and equally about the Russians seeking to reassert their presence in Europe. The Germans and French are equally involved as they have been seeking a Europe that has a place for Russia within it. The Germans and French see Russia as an access to China but also as a buffer from it. Up until the war in Ukraine, they were pursuing a rapprochement with Russia, and Nord Stream 2 was one such manifestation of the cosying up that Merkel ensured would progress at all costs before her term ended.
Unfortunately for Europe, the great power competition that is unfolding, increasingly violently between the US and China, threatens to make a backyard out of Europe- a battleground of empires and empires-to-be alike. There is a huge rift between the Western and Eastern European member states over the place of Russia in the European question, thereby threatening the cohesion and strategic unity of the EU. French President Macron’s famous ‘Economist’ interview calling NATO ‘brain-dead’ was a signal of challenging times ahead for Europe. Were the French and Germans contemplating exploring the possibility of a new path that is independent of the USA? Were they imagining a potential deal with the new kid on the block in Eurasia? What’s for sure is that Ukraine accelerated the dynamics that will force each player to make serious decisions and bold choices.
As the Americans retreat from Europe to focus elsewhere, the EU will have to make real decisions. Germany is at the forefront here. Unless they decide to make a fundamental shift in their world vision and create a military and unite Europe in a way that brings along and reassures the eastern Baltic bloc, then Europe will be divided. All sorts of actors will be cutting deals with individual European states- Europe won’t be safe, but rather unstable and violently imploding. And the vultures will be circling- Chinese, Russian, American, Turkish, Iranian, Indian.. History, in this case, will repeat itself.
If this topic interests you, you might also like our other article about Ukraine here
